Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mainly discusses why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you desire to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team could be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're just playing the portions. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the very first Canadian group given that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the cash has actually been available in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor (97) talks to media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would expect that to probably continue," Cipollini stated. "I believe we'll most likely take a little more Oilers cash simply since of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I think we will end up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not buy the Oilers ought to be favored.


"You do not see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the apparent concern: Are these 2 groups much better or worse than they were last year? I 'd state Florida is a much better version of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) slightly even worse than in 2015, specifically when you look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I give the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the 2nd skater and 6th player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him a possibility to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they truly going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred due to the fact that of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they could offer it to him here, however that's something to watch as the video games get going. If there is a Florida player that isn't truly sticking out ... there is a real life where it might be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been seen as a weakness on the lineup, a reputation that seemed sealed when he was benched 2 games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has allowed one or no objectives in five of his past 7 starts, 3 of them nothings.


Another terrific run in the web might put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable before," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd successive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue could finally capture up to the Panthers. Or they might simply be on a heating unit having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics indicate a Panthers championship and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida victory would be better.


"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "Last year was a bit tougher because more people liked Florida, however people are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently might go either method and Oklahoma City is heavily favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I think it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a chance to go 6 or 7 video games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)